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The basics of poker: Understanding Pot Odds

Most poker players instinctually understand that the size of the pot affects the way a hand should be played. In large pots players routinely make calls with hands that are unlikely to win. While this is often correct, many players lack full understanding of how the size of the pot affects correct play. A full understanding of how to compare your chances of winning to the size of the pot will lead to more accurate decisions at the table. Some of the time you will have to rely on judgment to make these calculations, while at other times a more precise mathematical formula can be employed.

When people speak of pot odds, it simply refers to the price the pot is laying you. If there is $100 in the pot (after someone bets), and the bet is $20 to you, then the pot is offering you 100-20, which is 5-1, on a call. When you compare this with the chances of either making your hand or already having the best hand you can reach a decision on whether the call or bet has a positive expectation.

When there are still cards to come and you have a drawing hand you must first figure out what the chances of making a winning hand is. There are many methods of doing this but the most straightforward way is to simply figure out the number of cards that will help you, and the number of cards that will not. For instance, if you had an open ended straight draw, you would have eight outs. There are 52 cards in the deck and you know 5 of them, the two in your hand and the three on the flop. That leaves 47 cards. If you subtract the eight cards that help you from the 47 it will leave you with 39 cards that do not help you and 8 cards that do. You turn this into and equation which is 39-8. This means that there are 8 cards that will win the pot for you and 39 that will not. Broken down further you are dealing with a little better than 5-1 (4.88-1 exactly). If you compare this to our previous example, where there is $100 in the pot and it is $20 to call, you can see that this would be a bet with a positive expectation and that you should call. If the bet was $30, then based on pot odds alone, you would not be able to call (although if you thought there was a chance you could win by bluffing or that you may win a lot if you made your hand, a call could be correct).

Another thing to consider is the implied or reverse implied odds of a situation. The implied odds are the money you may win if you make your hand. In the scenario of an open ended straight draw you could accept a slightly bad bet if you had reason to believe that you will get paid off for a large amount later in the hand. If the pot was offering you 4-1 and you needed it to offer 5-1, you may call on the flop if you are fairly certain that you will get paid off for two larger bets on the turn and the river if you happen to make your hand. This is what is referred to as implied odds. On the other end of the spectrum is reverse implied odds. This occurs when you are likely to be outdrawn and may end up paying someone off with a losing hand. There are many one pair hands that are likely to be second best if significant action occurs later in the hand. If for instance you have an Ace and a King (AK) and do not flop a pair on the flop, you must seriously consider whether you will win the pot even if you hit an Ace or a King. You may hit one of your cards only to still be behind and paying off bets.

For this reason you must be cautious with how many outs you assign over cards when figuring out your pot odds. In the situation where you have AK, the texture of the flop will have much to do with how many outs you can assign to each over card. Take for instance a flop of 9TJ all of hearts, when you have the AK of spades. To call any bets on this flop would usually be foolhardy because you may be drawing dead already. The only cards you can really hope to catch is an Ace that is not a heart and even then you are likely to either still be losing or be outdrawn. On the other hand, if the flop were 279r then you would have a much better chance of winning if you hit an A or K. Combined with the chance of having the best hand, you very well may be justified to take a card off. You still cannot assign 6 outs (3 aces and 3 kings) to your hand because there is still a reasonable chance that someone has a hand like A7s or A9s but it would be reasonable to give yourself 4.5 outs on average. This is an imperfect science and you will again have to rely on your judgment.

Another time that you will have to rely on your judgment to make a decision based on pot odds is when all the cards are out and you must decide whether or not to call a final bet or not. The formula is the same, you simply compare the chances that you will win to the price the pot is laying you. The difference is that you will have to use judgment rather than mathematics to get the first part of the equation. If, for instance, your opponent bet $20 into a $100 pot then you are again being offered 5-1. The problem is that your hand can only beat a bluff. You must use what you know about your opponents betting tendencies and playing style to decide if the likely hood of him bluffing is greater than the 5-1 the pot is offering you. If he would bluff more often than once every 6 times this situation comes up then the call is profitable. There is no way to be precise with these calculations but the more experience you have making these decisions the more accurate you will become.

You should also consider the pot odds that you are offering your opponents when you have a made hand. When the pot is large you need to do everything you can to win it, and that usually entails knocking as many people out as you can. Sometimes, if the pot is large you may need to check-raise a late position player to force the people between you to call two bets rather than one. At other times you may bet out into someone on your left who you feel will likely raise you, again with the intention of forcing others to call two bets instead of one. Basically, in large pots, you need to do anything you can to give yourself a better chance to win the pot either immediately or at showdown. On the other hand, in small pots you can take a few more liberties and play your hand in a less straightforward manner. When the pot is small the bets you may earn by slow playing are more important and getting outdrawn is not quite so disastrous. If a check against one person in an un-raised pot convinces him to call on the turn and river with a sub-par hand it may be worthwhile (do not overdo this, straightforward aggression is still usually called for). Keep in mind the size of the pot and if your opponent is likely to be making a mistake by calling. The larger a mistake you can force him to make the better a situation is for you.

Calculating pot odds and comparing them to the likely hood of your making or having the best hand may seem very complex at first glance. It will become second nature with practice though. Once you are aware of the math behind the decision making process, you will often not have to do any calculations at the table. It is smart to memorize the chances of different hands improving on the next card* to minimize any time consuming calculations at the table. If you do this and pay attention to what the pot odds are in different situations you will find that you are getting your money in good more often, and avoiding costly mistakes that your opponents are making. Continually getting your money in better than your opponents is the name of the game, and if you do so the money will find its way in your direction.

*Rounded off odds table for improving on the next card
# of outs                     chance of improving
1                                 46-1
2                                  23-1
3                                  15-1
4                                  11-1
5                                   8-1
6                                  7-1
7                                  6-1
8                                  5-1
9                                  4-1
10                                7-2
11                                3-1
12                                3-1
13                               5-2
14                               7-3
15                               2-1

Enough of theory? Why dont you take some time to read our online poker section, where we feature the majority of the online pokerooms. We play there, test them and rate them - you can also read reviews and comments of other players and visitors.

Alternatively browse through our other poker articles listed on the site:

Poker Position - Poker Position at the table

Poker Programs - Various helpful poker programs

Sit and Go Tourneys - The ides of Sit and Go Tourneys

FM Ratio - Folding Money or Free Money ratio

Monetary requirement - Bankroll

Hold'em Starting Hands - Evaluation of the Hold'em Starting Hands

Computer Analysis - Computer analysis of the hands

The Bonus Factor - The added bonus factor and its consequences

or see the full list of the articles.