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Bluffing correctly is an extremely important part of a well rounded poker game. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most widely misunderstood. When most people think about bluffing, they conjure an image of a player making an extremely large bet with a sub-par hand and winning a large pot with nothing but raw nerve and a strong betting arm. While this is certainly one kind of bluff, the scenarios that call for such drastic actions are few and far between. Hopefully this essay will clear up some of the misconceptions surrounding bluffing and show readers how to successfully integrate bluffing into their overall game plan.
The difficult part is deciding which hands to bluff with. If you bluff, or make other sub-optimal plays, too often just to confuse your opponents than you will be unable to recoup these losses. It is much better if you can find very inexpensive or even profitable ways to mislead your opponents. That is where the semi-bluff comes in.
The semi-bluff is one of the strongest plays in poker and all strong winning players utilize it. In fact, the vast majority of your bluffs should be semi-bluffs. It allows you to play your hands aggressively and add mix to your play without sacrificing value. Before we go any further, lets make sure we are all on the same page and define the semi-bluff.
A semi-bluff is a bet or raise with a hand that is unlikely to be best at the moment, but has ways to improve to the best hand (David Sklansky coined the phrase in his book The Theory of Poker, which is a must read for all serious players, and deals in great detail with semi-bluffing). Semi-bluffs can range from a hand as weak as an inside straight draw, to a hand that may be a favorite over the made hand like a straight flush draw. By betting or raising instead of meekly calling along, you create a number of positive possibilities.
For instance, imagine that you are on the button in a Limit Hold ‘em game with a hand like KQ of spades and have called a raise from a player in middle position. Everyone else folds so you take the flop heads up. The flop come T75 with the T and 5 of spades. When the original raiser bets, raising has a number of benefits. For one, if he has a significantly weaker hand than he is representing he may fold and you may win the pot immediately. If he does call you will have an excellent chance of winning the pot with another bet on the turn if he has high cards such as AK or AJ. If for some reason you decide not to follow through with another bet on the turn (perhaps you pick up a tell that he is strong and will check raise), then if he checks you can take a free card and save a small bet compared to if you just were to call on the flop and the turn. Another possibility is that you will make your hand on the turn if a spade were to come. This is the best possibility of all, because now you have won an extra small bet than you may have won if you would have just called (this may not be true depending on how your opponent would have played the hand). Basically by raising you give yourself the chance to win the pot immediately, set up a bluff on the turn, create a possibility of a free card, and build a pot when you have significant equity. The downside is fairly small. If your opponent decides to three bet you on the flop and then leads the turn, or simply calls your flop raise and then bets out on the turn, he has played his hand well and made it slightly more expensive for you to play the hand. You will still have many outs though, so from an equity stand point this is far from a disaster. Overall the pros to this play far outweigh the cons (you still should not do anything in poker all the time and this is no exception, but generally speaking it is a far superior line to just calling along).
The semi-bluff is also a strong play in No Limit but must be used a little more judiciously. The downside risks that were stated at the end of the last paragraph are much more of a problem in a No Limit setting. By reopening the betting you give your opponent the option to set you all in or make a large re-raise that may cause you to fold a hand that could have won a very large pot if you had played it differently. This is a risk you need to be comfortable taking in many cases but something you always need to consider when weighing your options. The best opponent to make a semi-bluff raise against is a fairly passive player who is unlikely to re-raise you.
In No Limit the size of your stack is crucial to determining if a semi-bluff is correct. You want to avoid creating a situation where you get around half of your chips in the pot with a draw on the flop. This will put you in a very tricky situation on the turn if you miss your hand. It is much better to semi-bluff the flop if it will either leave you with a significant amount of chips left or if it will leave you all-in. If you have plenty of chips left you still have a number of options at your disposal on the turn and can play your hand accordingly. If you are all in then you will have made a strong move to win the pot immediately and if you get called you will still have two cards to come to make your hand. The combined possibility of your opponent folding and the chance that you will make your hand and win if you get called is what often makes this a profitable play.
Semi-bluffing is one of the strongest plays in a poker players arsenal, and it is impossible to be successful at the higher limits without understanding how to utilize the play. While semi-bluffing is important in both Limit and No Limit play, much more discretion must be shown in a No Limit setting. In a Limit game a failed semi bluff will usually cost you less than one big bet (from an equity standpoint) at No Limit it can cost you the entire pot (when you are forced to fold) or cause you to get your entire stack in as a significant underdog. You have to be prepared to take these risks if you are going to play No Limit Hold ’em but you still have to weigh your options carefully and proceed accordingly. In both forms of poker however, understanding the semi-bluff is very important. When you semi-bluff you give yourself two ways to win, either your opponent folds or you can make the best hand by the river. If you learn to successfully integrate semi-bluffing into your over all game plan you will start to see an improved win rate as you win more pots, while at the same time adding a level of deception to your play.
Complete Bluffs
Although most of your bluffs should be confined to semi-bluffs there are situations that call for complete bluffs. The first, and most common scenario occurs primarily in No Limit Hold ’em. Often there are small pots that no one seems to have much interest in. It is imperative that you pick up your share of these pots when no one seems to have flopped a legitimate hand, since they occur fairly regularly. Often times a small bet of around half the pot will be enough to win the hand. If someone calls your bet then you will have to decide whether or not to continue with your bluff, but it is generally advisable to just give up on the pot. The best time to continue with the bluff is when you can put your opponent squarely on a draw. In this situation, if the draw does not arrive, then you may want to continue with the bluff. This becomes dangerous though, as it will now be very expensive. You need to be very confident of your read before going forward with this sort of play.
Another occasion in which a complete bluff may be called for occurs when, on the river, you are left with a hand that has no legitimate chance of winning. This usually occurs when you are drawing at a flush or straight, miss everything, and are left with no hand to showdown. You will then have to decide what the chances of a bluff succeeding are, and if the pot size warrants the effort (more on this in the section on the math of bluffing). These plays are difficult to succeed at and should be used sparingly. In Limit Hold ‘em only a very good player will fold any sort of a hand on the end for one bet, and a very good player will be aware of the excellent pot odds he is receiving and will need to be absolutely certain that he is beat to lay down his hand. In No Limit you also must be very careful. Your chance of succeeding is higher, but when your bluff is caught it is a very expensive mistake.
When contemplating these situations your good judgment is of paramount importance. These bluffs are high in risk and reward. Your feel for the table dynamics, your image, and how your opponents play will be the deciding factors in your decision making process. Always keep in mind what hand you are representing and if it makes sense that you could have that hand, based on how the hand has been played so far. One of the most common mistakes beginners make when bluffing is doing so in a way that is very difficult to believe. Make sure your bluff is consistent with how you would have likely played a strong holding.
When not to bluff
There are certain scenarios that often come up where people bluff when they should not. One common example of this is with AK on the river in Limit Hold ‘em. After raising pre-flop, and continuing with aggressive action on the flop, and turn they are left facing one opponent on the river, and they still hold just ace high. They (often mistakenly) conclude that the only way they can win the pot is to bet again and have their opponent fold. The problem with this logic is that if their opponent was on a draw and missed then the AK is usually going to be good. In this situation they will win the same whether they bet or not. If their opponent was calling the flop and the turn with a pair then they will almost certainly pay off one more bet on the river. This is a classic example of a better hand always calling you and a worse hand never calling you. Generally, you are much better off checking with your AK and seeing if it is good (which it will be more than you might think against only one opponent).
Another occasion that most people bluff too much is when they are facing multiple opponents after they have raised pre-flop. Often times they feel compelled to keep the lead on the flop even though they know that there is little chance of them either having the best hand or of everyone folding. There is no shame in checking in these scenarios. The more players that are active in the pot, the more difficult it is to bluff. This is true for all stages of the hand, and how many opponents you have should always be a prime consideration when deciding whether or not a bluff will be profitable.
Math of bluffing
The actual math involved with bluffing is fairly simple, and the most difficult aspect of it is your judgment of how likely a bluff is to succeed. Basically you simply compare the chances of your bluff succeeding with the pot-odds you will receive for your bet. For instance, lets say you were playing in a 10-20 Limit Hold ‘em game. After semi-bluffing on the flop and turn you missed your draw on the river*. The pot stands at $120 and you have one opponent. The bet is $20, so if you think a bluff would be successful more often than one in seven times then it is a profitable bet and you should bluff. The difficult part is deciding how often you think a bluff will be successful, and this is why your judgment is so important. Once you develop this judgment or feel for these situations it is usually unnecessary to do these calculations at the table as you will generally have a good idea if a bluff should show a profit or not.
*This same equation can be used earlier in the hand as well. For instance in No Limit Hold ’em you may have a $50 pot on the flop and need to bet $25 to try to steal it on the flop. If you estimate that a bluff would be successful more often than once for every three times you attempt it then it is a profitable bluff
Conclusion
As you can see there is a lot more to bluffing than simply betting big and hoping everyone folds. In fact there is so much to be said about bluffing and semi-bluffing that one could never hope to cover it all. This should however give you a good idea of why it is important to bluff and what needs to be considered when executing a bluff. If you follow these guidelines, confine most of your bluffing to semi-bluffs, and develop a good sense of the likely hood of a bluff succeeding you should be one step ahead of your opposition, and that should translate into profits at the table. |
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